The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released data for the United States GDP Growth reporting that US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020. In the second quarter, the United States real GDP growth decreased 31.4 percent.
America’s GDP Growth Rate
BEA reported that the increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19.
Retail Sales figures from multiple countries were released in the past few days including Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Poland, Taiwan, Denmark, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand (NZ).
With the coronavirus pandemic impacting on all Retail Sales, newly released data shows that many countries could bounce back after the lockdown restriction.
This week saw the release of GDP Growth figures from two countries that are amongst the world’s most important transportation hubs – Singapore and Germany. The data released by Statistics Singapore and Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) shows the GDP Growth Q3 2020 for Germany and Singapore.
Gross Domestic Product Growth
Gross Domestic Product YoY: Q3 2020 – Germany YoY was -4.0% on the same quarter a year earlier
– Singapore YoY was -5.8%
Gross Domestic Product QoQ: Q3 2020
– Germany QoQ was +8.5% on the previous quarter
– Singapore QoQ was +9.2%
Both countries has seen a big impact on their GDP growth affected by the coronavirus pandemic but the latest figures suggest that both countries could bounce back.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore said that their economy is projected to grow by “4.0 to 6.0 per cent” in 2021 and that the recovery of the Singapore economy in the year ahead is expected to be gradual, and will depend to a large extent on how the global economy performs and whether Singapore is able to continue to keep the domestic COVID-19 situation under control.
Germany’s economy is the fifth largest economy in the world and is Europe’s largest with its leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and other equipment with the exports of Germany’s goods and services accounting for nearly half of its GDP.
Source: [Contains information from {The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) dataset} accessed on {23 November 2020} from {Statistics Singapore} which is made available under the terms of the Singapore Open Data Licence version 1.0 {Singapore Open Data Licence }]
Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) reported that the Germany GDP Growth Rate rose by 8.5% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the second quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations.
However, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was still 4.0% lower in the third quarter of 2020 than in the fourth quarter of 2019, that is the quarter before the global coronavirus crisis.
Germany Gross Domestic Product GDP
– YoY was -4.0% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
– QoQ was +8.5% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
Data released by Germany’s The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) data indicated the growth rate year on year for Germany is -4%. Although the figure sits in the contraction zone, it is an improvement from previous of -11.3% giving signals that the German economy could be bouncing back after the coronavirus pandemic..
Data release Monday the 23rd of November from the Markit Manufacturing PMI (data known as IHS Markit’s The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index which measures the performance of the manufacturing sector) revealed to be 57.9, slightly down again from last report of 58.2, but was still enough to be the leader in manufacturing and above both the US and the UK which both having had expansions in the last 2 PMI’s.
Germany’s economy is the fifth largest economy in the world and is Europe’s largest with its leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and other equipment.
Exports of Germany’s goods and services account for nearly half of its GDP.
MTI reported that the Singapore economy expanded by 9.2 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis in the third quarter, a turnaround from the 13.2 per cent contraction in the second quarter.
The report also stated that on a year-on-year basis, the economy contracted by 5.8 per cent, moderating from the 13.3 per cent contraction recorded in the previous quarter.
The Ministry of Trade and Investment Singapore (MTI) said that the improved performance of the Singapore economy came on the back of the phased resumption of activities in the third quarter following the Circuit Breaker that was implemented from 7 April to 1 June 2020, as well as the rebound in activity in major economies during the quarter as they emerged from their lockdowns.
Singapore Economy Projected to Grow
The Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore said that their economy is projected to grow by “4.0 to 6.0 per cent” in 2021 and that the recovery of the Singapore economy in the year ahead is expected to be gradual, and will depend to a large extent on how the global economy performs and whether Singapore is able to continue to keep the domestic COVID-19 situation under control.
Source: [Contains information from {The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) dataset} accessed on {23 November 2020} from {Statistics Singapore} which is made available under the terms of the Singapore Open Data Licence version 1.0 {Singapore Open Data Licence }]*
Monday the 23rd of November: Release of data from the Markit Manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, European Union, United Kingdom and the United States of America.
Markit Manufacturing PMI
Released monthly, in advance by IHS Markit the PMI data known as The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and its data is derived from a survey of top industrial companies and based on 5 indexes with a total weight of 100%.
A figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector while a figure below 50 represents a contraction.
Stats NZ has released figures showing New Zealand Retail Sales recovery in the September 2020 quarter.
For the September 2020 quarter compared with the September 2019 quarter the total value of NZ Retail Sales (with price effects included) rose 7.4 percent ($1.8 billion) and the total volume of retail sales rose 8.3 percent
New Zealand Retail Sales Values Rise
Stat NZ said retail sales values recorded its largest September quarter rise since the series began in 1995.
Furthermore, spending on major household items, vehicles, and groceries contributed to the strong rise in total retail sales compared with the September 2019 quarter.
The report stated this quarter’s rise indicates a recovery for retail businesses, but it does not make up for the historic fall of 15 percent ($3.6 billion) in the COVID-19-affected June 2020 quarter.
New Zealand Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period.
Sales values boosted by motor vehicles and supermarkets
Twelve of the 15 industries had higher sales values in the September 2020 quarter compared with the September 2019 quarter.
With price effects included, the main movements by industry were:
motor vehicle and parts retailing, up 13 percent ($454 million)
supermarket and grocery stores, up 8.4 percent ($429 million)
hardware, building, and garden supplies, up 16 percent ($352 million)
electrical and electronic goods retailing, up 25 percent ($232 million)
department stores, up 12 percent ($147 million)
recreational goods retailing, up 20 percent ($115 million).
Fuel retailing had the largest fall, down 8.1 percent ($176 million), followed by accommodation, down 12 percent ($110 million).
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Retail trade survey: September 2020 quarter, November 23, 2020. Reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of Stats NZ.
The European Commission has released its latest Business and EU Consumer Confidence Survey. The November 2020 Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator which states that the estimate of the consumer confidence indicator decreased in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down) compared to October.
Consumer Confidence Indicator for EU and Euro Area is Down
At −17.6 points (euro area) and −18.7 points (EU), both indicators are well below their long-term averages of −11.2 (euro area) and −10.6 (EU).
The latest figures released by Statistics Canada shows that Canada Retail Sales rose 1.1% to $53.9 billion in September, the fifth consecutive monthly increase since the record decline in April.
Canada Retail Sales
Core retail sales, which excludes gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, also rose 1.1%, on higher sales at general merchandise stores and food and beverage stores.
Retail sales were up, in volume terms, sales were up 1.1% in September.
Rounding out the third quarter, retail sales were up 22.6% compared with the second quarter. In volume terms, retail sales rose 21.5%.
Source: Statistics Canada, Retail trade, September 2020, November 20, 2020. Reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of Statistics Canada.
The figures from Australia Retail Sales showed that the seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.6% ($460.5m) from September 2020 to October 2020.
Australia Retail Turnover Rose
It is also highlights that the seasonally adjusted terms, Australian turnover rose 7.3% in October 2020 compared with October 2019. Excluding Victoria, sales are 11.9% higher than October 2019.
Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services led the rises, although there were also rises for Other retailing, and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing. Household goods retailing was relatively unchanged, maintaining recent strength.
Victoria led the rises in all industries, except for Food retailing, as stores reopened throughout October. Victoria saw a rise of 5.2%, although it remains 5.7% below the levels of October 2019
NSW rose 1.6% after falls in August and September 2020. Western Australia led the rises in annual terms, with turnover 15.1% above October 2019.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2020, November 20). Retail Trade, Australia, Preliminary. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Government. Retrieved November 20, 2020. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia-preliminary/oct-2020
The data indicates that Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks, PSNB ex) is estimated to have been £22.3 billion in October 2020.
The ONS stated that is “£10.8 billion more than in October 2019, which is both the highest October borrowing and the sixth-highest borrowing in any month since monthly records began in 1993” for for UK Public sector finances.
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing OCT: £22.3 billion
The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing shows the relationship between UK public sector monthly income and expenditure.
Central government bodies are estimated to have spent £71.3 billion on day-to-day activities (current expenditure) in October 2020, £6.4 billion more than in October 2019; this growth includes £1.3 billion in Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and £0.3 billion in Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) payments.
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB ex) in the first seven months of this financial year (April to October 2020) is estimated to have been £214.9 billion, £169.1 billion more than in the same period last year and the highest public sector borrowing in any April to October period since records began in 1993.
Debt to GDP ratios levels last seen 1960’s
Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) rose by £276.3 billion in the first seven months of the financial year to reach £2,076.8 billion at the end of October 2020, or around 100.8% of gross domestic product (GDP); debt to GDP ratios in recent months have reached levels last seen in the early 1960s.
General government net borrowing in the first seven months of this financial year (April to October 2020) is estimated to have been around 9.9% GDP.
The impact of the coronavirus on the public finances
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a substantial impact on public sector borrowing. Official OBR estimates (XLS, 201KB) published on 21 August 2020 indicate that the £214.9 billion borrowed by the public sector in the financial year-to-October 2020 could reach £372.2 billion by the end of March 2021.
Central government tax and national insurance receipts (combined) in the seven months-to-October 2020 fell by £38.3 billion (or 9.7%) compared with the same period in 2019, while government support for individuals and businesses during the pandemic contributed to an increase of £123.5 billion (or 28.5%) in central government day-to-day (or current) spending.
The extra funding required to support government coronavirus support schemes combined with reduced cash receipts and a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) have all helped push public sector net debt as a ratio of GDP to levels last seen in the early 1960s.
The ONS reported that there an increase of 5.8% year-on-year growth(YoY) rate for UK retails sales and that “the feedback from a range of businesses suggesting that consumers had started Christmas shopping earlier this year”.
The data is an estimate of retail sales in volume and value terms, seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted in Great Britain for October 2020.
UK Retail Sales Volumes Increased
Compared to last month, September, retail sales volumes increased by 1.2% which made it the sixth consecutive month of growth for the Retail Industry.
The ONS further reported the “total retail sales values (excluding fuel) increased by 7.9% when compared with February which was driven by a strong increase in sales online at 52.8% in comparison to reduced store sales at negative 3.3%” and that “growth in the volume of sales for non-store retailing at 6.4%, household goods stores at 3.2% and department stores at 3.1%”.
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